NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Patriots (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9026229fd40838fceaecb5063ff2b1fb98f9e74ee4dc2000e88ee8d6d7d54944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Texans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed Texans | 51c | 1,230$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.7 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Patriots | 49c | 754.22$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.72 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…cbdbbacked Texans | 52c | 744.62$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Texans | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -9.4wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Texans | 51c | 690.51$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.16 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Patriots | 41c | 579.23$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.68 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Patriots | 31c | 449.14$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.9 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Patriots | 49c | 446.22$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.57 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Patriots | 49c | 390.32$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.06 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Patriots | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…2d72backed Patriots | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…451bbacked Patriots | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Patriots | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c37…3fd1backed Patriots | 54c | 83.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Patriots | 51c | 73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Patriots | 51c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…8260backed Patriots | 51c | 39.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Patriots | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b6…a5f3backed Patriots | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +60%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Texans | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Texans | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Texans | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-1.5)this page
- C.J. Stroud: Rushing Yards O/U 226.5Under won
- Christian Kirk: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Dalton Schultz: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Drake Maye: Rushing Yards O/U 35.5Under won
- Jayden Higgins: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 22.5Over won
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Patriots won
- Texans Team Total: O/U 19.5Under won
- Texans vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Texans vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Texans vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 20.5Over won
- Texans vs. Patriots: O/U 41.5Over won
- TreVeyon Henderson: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Woody Marks: Rushing Yards O/U 57.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.