Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Heracles Almelo vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e79a6c529b7fffd425e60255dbd243d743e9b54dacc42792d1fb5b1c78c525b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,324 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 72c | 14,785$10,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,643.17 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 13,299$3,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,576.23 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 28c | 7,094$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,102.12 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 29c | 6,005$1,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,263.91 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 4,413$3,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,217.91 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 4,183$1,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,407.11 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Yes | 46c | 3,484$1,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.49 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 71c | 2,372$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.19 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked No | 72c | 1,861$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 28c | 1,214$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.74 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 79c | 1,213$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.2 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 28c | 873.03$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.58 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 31c | 777.35$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.73 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 39c | 607.98$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.03 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7c…3c87backed No | 71c | 452.78$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 20c | 434.83$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.84 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 68c | 401.55$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.05 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 28c | 363$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.36 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…8b6fbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 10c | 316.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 28c | 315.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.45 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 29c | 304$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.85 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 28c | 278.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.84 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 17c | 270.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 255.65$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.23 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 28c | 253$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.16 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.87 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 29c | 225.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.79 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9d87backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 28c | 182.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.54 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed No | 69c | 174$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.06 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -5.2wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 28c | 166.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…c51bbacked Yes | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 28c | 148.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed No | 10c | 133.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked No | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 28c | 117.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 41c | 106.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 70c | 99.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 15c | 95.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…e58fbacked No | 71c | 73.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +6.0wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…1435backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 28c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228c…0fb0backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 29c | 66.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 59c | 66.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 62.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 306 | 46.7%143 W · 163 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed No | 71c | 48.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 30c | 47.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Yes | 26c | 45.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 70c | 42.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 72c | 35.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…6ceebacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed No | 71c | 26.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed No | 76c | 21.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e91…8d7ebacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…d33ebacked Yes | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 65c | 15.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 479 | 26.9%129 W · 350 L | -32.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Heracles Almelo vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw?this page
- Will Heracles Almelo win on 2026-03-20?No won
- Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-03-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.