Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e7e3646e0c9947263c48046c696c59327e3d399617ed47c48e0d2ed1877b581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Over | 51c | 22,895$11,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,630.49 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 13,790$6,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,283.48 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 6,761$3,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,121.93 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Under | 57c | 2,032$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.76 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 50c | 1,183$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.78 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Over | 31c | 862$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 50c | 347$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.04 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 62c | 324.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…d014backed Over | 61c | 311.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 304.31$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.94 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 288.97$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.36 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Under | 48c | 288.46$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 261.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.22 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 56c | 224.82$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 62c | 217.82$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 209.71$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Over | 30c | 135.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 44c | 84.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Under | 76c | 69.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…4c08backed Under | 59c | 62.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Over | 55c | 53.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 45c | 50.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 67c | 44.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b00…cfbdbacked Under | 54c | 43.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…3e75backed Under | 39c | 40.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…ffb3backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Under | 43c | 30.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…29d8backed Under | 44c | 29.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 42c | 24.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 52c | 21.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb16…9757backed Under | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.