TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

George Mason Patriots vs. Richmond Spiders

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Richmond Spidersof George Mason Patriots, Richmond Spiders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,811
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$121,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,811 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea22…747abacked George Mason Patriots0c11,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7124121.2%51 W · 190 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+299%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaad5…ac2ebacked George Mason Patriots8c8,804$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.529745.4%44 W · 53 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+18.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Richmond Spiders68c7,624$5,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,473.555,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Richmond Spiders39c6,410$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,910.161652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed George Mason Patriots61c6,238$3,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,805.4221149.3%104 W · 107 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed George Mason Patriots4c5,186$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.772,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked George Mason Patriots61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,049.9889645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed George Mason Patriots65c4,601$2,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,984.931,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb2f…936abacked George Mason Patriots62c2,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2401050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Richmond Spiders38c1,965$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.9974649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed George Mason Patriots2c1,882$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.642,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…e38abacked George Mason Patriots14c1,758$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed George Mason Patriots62c1,753$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.38250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Richmond Spiders35c1,667$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.6325946.3%120 W · 139 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb934…6cafbacked Richmond Spiders34c1,250$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+62.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed George Mason Patriots20c1,222$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.715,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1a1d…4ad2backed Richmond Spiders33c1,209$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7193…8229backed Richmond Spiders32c1,201$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x264d…13fdbacked Richmond Spiders34c1,184$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0774…b1fbbacked Richmond Spiders34c1,181$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71f…db16backed Richmond Spiders34c1,178$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked George Mason Patriots64c1,159$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.122,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e72…acecbacked Richmond Spiders35c1,156$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick35cpaid+189.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed Richmond Spiders39c1,154$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.8556444.1%249 W · 315 L+2.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e85…7085backed Richmond Spiders35c1,140$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7411100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed George Mason Patriots1c1,128$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.671,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ac…f94fbacked Richmond Spiders34c1,072$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf7…12e5backed Richmond Spiders34c1,046$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.36875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+37.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e6…911dbacked Richmond Spiders33c1,009$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8c…93cdbacked Richmond Spiders39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61011347.8%54 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f7d…99f8backed George Mason Patriots66c985$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.1757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x178d…dcd6backed Richmond Spiders34c927$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.82540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+54.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Richmond Spiders39c850$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.515851.9%82 W · 76 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4643…4166backed Richmond Spiders35c839$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa02f…0726backed Richmond Spiders35c797$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.05771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf858…ea6abacked George Mason Patriots66c760$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Richmond Spiders62c759.72$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.1799848.4%483 W · 515 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Richmond Spiders38c736$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.3292246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked George Mason Patriots62c700$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43437142.6%158 W · 213 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Richmond Spiders38c689$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.131,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0a…5146backed George Mason Patriots65c626$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.920%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e71…2d4bbacked George Mason Patriots65c625$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e3…67c6backed George Mason Patriots66c617$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5302…c0dfbacked George Mason Patriots66c617$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.22366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked George Mason Patriots24c615.67$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.761,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1401…cc21backed George Mason Patriots67c610$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc387…98fcbacked George Mason Patriots66c609$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31d2…71d8backed George Mason Patriots67c608$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2630…1cc8backed George Mason Patriots66c608$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5b9…65a5backed George Mason Patriots68c602$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc6d…c521backed George Mason Patriots67c601$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x589b…f41cbacked George Mason Patriots68c599$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x610b…d55dbacked George Mason Patriots67c599$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60f0…a9e5backed George Mason Patriots66c575$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Richmond Spiders35c573.08$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.932,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd264…bb91backed George Mason Patriots66c573$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Richmond Spiders36c568.79$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.0312251.6%63 W · 59 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x530d…8720backed George Mason Patriots66c565$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa242…e339backed George Mason Patriots66c561$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd9…0ae9backed George Mason Patriots69c557.75$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.55366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Richmond Spiders36c555.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.561,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7205…4525backed George Mason Patriots65c524$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7181…f1f3backed George Mason Patriots65c514$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed George Mason Patriots2c512.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Richmond Spiders38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31091848.9%449 W · 469 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc78…a592backed George Mason Patriots66c481$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.46425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-63.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54da…fa4cbacked George Mason Patriots65c474$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.1757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb6…ad74backed George Mason Patriots65c464$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed George Mason Patriots29c458$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.612,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Richmond Spiders79c457.26$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.63,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed George Mason Patriots7c442.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.868342.2%35 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Richmond Spiders38c408.07$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.1682048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Richmond Spiders38c404$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.4860548.9%296 W · 309 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Richmond Spiders32c345.81$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.999045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3f…3f83backed George Mason Patriots65c345$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.25757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Richmond Spiders35c344$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.640755.8%227 W · 180 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Richmond Spiders38c342.11$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.1179448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x782d…12e5backed George Mason Patriots65c333$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.45837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-41.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked George Mason Patriots62c317.46$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.834,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3b…bb7bbacked George Mason Patriots66c312$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fc4…0947backed George Mason Patriots66c310$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed George Mason Patriots37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11125325.3%64 W · 189 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed George Mason Patriots69c289.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20048462.8%304 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b2a…bc9bbacked Richmond Spiders36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.783650%18 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed George Mason Patriots4c272.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.292,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…e1babacked George Mason Patriots66c265$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.9850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Richmond Spiders34c265$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.950745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Richmond Spiders38c261.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.3513052.3%68 W · 62 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Richmond Spiders39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.416346%29 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b8…8fa9backed George Mason Patriots68c254.65$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1be6…593dbacked Richmond Spiders34c250.32$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+68.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked George Mason Patriots26c227.55$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2719138.2%73 W · 118 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Richmond Spiders35c224.14$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.6912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Richmond Spiders33c222.77$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.7837835.7%135 W · 243 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fb…b328backed George Mason Patriots12c211$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.785530.9%17 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9782…9630backed George Mason Patriots67c210$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Richmond Spiders58c200.65$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.422,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Richmond Spiders37c200$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1272,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa341…0aeabacked Richmond Spiders34c200$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1321172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00cf…d102backed George Mason Patriots64c199.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9921449.5%106 W · 108 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.