Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Luciano Darderi vs Lorenzo Musetti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e863c1b430f1c3d144f7f4f04430a1b3283930f2ed5360d5ea21351f68562d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Darderi, Musetti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Musetti | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Darderi | 17c | 3,729$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.69 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Darderi | 20c | 2,244$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.86 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Darderi | 25c | 2,128$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.1 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Darderi | 20c | 1,472$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.4 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Darderi | 18c | 1,322$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.37 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Darderi | 15c | 1,296$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.55 | 671 | 31.3%210 W · 461 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Musetti | 75c | 1,283$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.84 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Darderi | 17c | 1,275$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.65 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Darderi | 24c | 1,200$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.01 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…4c0abacked Darderi | 25c | 1,020$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Musetti | 75c | 975.99$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.23 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54f…70c3backed Darderi | 23c | 742.28$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.73 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Darderi | 24c | 725.33$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Darderi | 25c | 377.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Musetti | 76c | 376.47$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.35 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Darderi | 16c | 366.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Darderi | 14c | 357.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…bb33backed Musetti | 79c | 316.46$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 74cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Darderi | 20c | 251$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Darderi | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Darderi | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Darderi | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Darderi | 14c | 194$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Darderi | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9239…9584backed Darderi | 11c | 175.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Musetti | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Musetti | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Darderi | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Darderi | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Darderi | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Darderi | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Darderi | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95fc…e548backed Musetti | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…edf9backed Musetti | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Darderi | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Darderi | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…806abacked Musetti | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.