Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Badosa (-1.5) vs Ibragimova (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e8e0a0407e63a87a30292dac52e6238d6f3150ddbe53e3f0cbe5deebf3eaa65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ibragimovaof Badosa, Ibragimova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Badosa | 69c | 3,621$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Ibragimova | 31c | 1,249$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.83 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Ibragimova | 45c | 1,152$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.38 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Ibragimova | 31c | 1,008$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.26 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca4…348fbacked Badosa | 64c | 999.97$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.98 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Badosa | 58c | 749.6$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.77 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Ibragimova | 30c | 617.39$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.17 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Ibragimova | 32c | 600$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Ibragimova | 36c | 558.33$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.33 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Badosa | 31c | 469.97$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.82 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Ibragimova | 33c | 341.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.92 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Badosa | 69c | 319.13$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Ibragimova | 31c | 266$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.39 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Ibragimova | 33c | 232$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.44 | 265 | 46.4%123 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Badosa | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa302…3ba2backed Badosa | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +7.4wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Ibragimova | 36c | 138$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Ibragimova | 36c | 136.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Ibragimova | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Ibragimova | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Ibragimova | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Ibragimova | 30c | 83.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ibragimova | 37c | 68.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Ibragimova | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadde…ec24backed Badosa | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Ibragimova | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Badosa | 67c | 49.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Ibragimova | 33c | 49.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…3320backed Badosa | 69c | 34.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Badosa | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 245 | 46.5%114 W · 131 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Badosa | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 449 | 52.8%237 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Badosa | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 587 | 50.4%296 W · 291 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Badosa (-1.5) vs Ibragimova (+1.5)this page
- Alevtina Ibragimova vs. Paula Badosa: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Iasi Open: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Paula BadosaPaula Badosa won
- Ibragimova vs. Badosa: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Ibragimova vs. Badosa: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Ibragimova vs BadosaBadosa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.