Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e9552acf6c47461ec3e1848159c73bd67f63feefc061312013e9bc71512453f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 819.51$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 78c | 491.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.96 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 440.25$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 232.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 200.43$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 196.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 27c | 181.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 75c | 149.07$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 19c | 131.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 128.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 126.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 17c | 125.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 116.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 16c | 114.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 101.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 77c | 99.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 95.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 14c | 89.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 28c | 79.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 76c | 77.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 24c | 74.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 68c | 73.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 65.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 64.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b0…1861backed Yes | 25c | 63.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 77c | 57.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 24c | 57.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 56.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 77c | 56.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 27c | 54.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 29c | 51.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 74c | 44.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 23c | 44.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 25c | 44.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 41.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 36c | 39.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 34.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 80c | 32.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 77c | 30.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 78c | 29.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 27.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 26.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 77c | 25.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 78c | 22.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…e40ebacked No | 77c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 18.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…6eacbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 79c | 13.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed No | 78c | 12.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or below on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.