Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8138c4d6c6320a1af425b36018f5efa8ffce055deab3e65746c98e3471969706
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 70c | 831.32$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.28 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 339.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 315.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 29c | 223.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.55 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 77c | 220.31$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 170.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 164.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.74 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed Yes | 26c | 158.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.84 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 72c | 149.22$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.74 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 15c | 124.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.48 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 17c | 123.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 119.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed No | 80c | 118.54$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 23c | 74.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 74.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 23c | 65.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 69c | 62.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 55.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 33c | 49.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 26c | 49.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…66aabacked No | 71c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 79c | 37.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 77c | 29.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 80c | 25.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…a59bbacked No | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed No | 77c | 19.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…7883backed No | 78c | 19.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 79c | 18.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 70c | 15.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or below on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.