NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Celtics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ea341a9bf9f3e53accfddead0cd3d6f992f2278027f57ea93fb73adc47bc141
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Knicks, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Celtics | 64c | 1,249$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.72 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Knicks | 35c | 1,248$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 489 | 38.7%189 W · 300 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Knicks | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Celtics | 70c | 554.66$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.1 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Celtics | 69c | 499.99$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Knicks | 4c | 486.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 370 | 11.4%42 W · 328 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…5b90backed Celtics | 67c | 333.36$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +174.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Knicks | 30c | 333.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…dab2backed Knicks | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Knicks | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 126 | 57.1%72 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Knicks | 35c | 288.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 893 | 53%473 W · 420 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Knicks | 36c | 279.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc246…b17dbacked Celtics | 71c | 278.26$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Knicks | 32c | 188.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca2…c234backed Celtics | 69c | 137.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…3324backed Knicks | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…a6fdbacked Celtics | 71c | 112.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Knicks | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Knicks | 30c | 100.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Celtics | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed Celtics | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Knicks | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Knicks | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Knicks | 28c | 99.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…1180backed Celtics | 64c | 64.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a33…83abbacked Celtics | 71c | 61.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Knicks | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240b…c32abacked Knicks | 37c | 54.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Knicks | 30c | 50.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 229 | 39.7%91 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Knicks | 33c | 44.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 316 | 31.6%100 W · 216 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Knicks | 32c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | -20.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Knicks | 31c | 39.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Knicks | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6530backed Celtics | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…2a69backed Celtics | 72c | 32.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Celtics | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Celtics | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba0…3d98backed Celtics | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Celtics | 69c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…12fabacked Celtics | 79c | 25.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…3bd3backed Celtics | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Celtics | 71c | 24.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…610abacked Celtics | 68c | 17.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d5…7b41backed Celtics | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…d4edbacked Celtics | 70c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…c02fbacked Celtics | 71c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.