Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Bitcoin all time high by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ea42ffb210aec4ba774f5cc3281793c37c38ebeabe03cf7c9a77a47f8d083c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7881…4568backed No | 6c | 9,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 26c | 4,129$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698f…ae41backed No | 8c | 4,016$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 22c | 3,912$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.08 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba69…79eebacked No | 12c | 3,515$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed No | 15c | 3,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed Yes | 68c | 2,478$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e7…88adbacked Yes | 57c | 2,007$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…6b43backed No | 4c | 2,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 14cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 29c | 1,756$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -8.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…a455backed No | 26c | 1,350$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 760.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…da0ebacked Yes | 67c | 506.69$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.59 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 25c | 399$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd3…68d5backed No | 25c | 237.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…d654backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6453…5553backed No | 36c | 139.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…663fbacked Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…237cbacked No | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed No | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…d61fbacked Yes | 78c | 128.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…a65ebacked Yes | 77c | 125.44$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c5…2230backed Yes | 78c | 120.26$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46b…5c50backed No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ea…473cbacked Yes | 77c | 119.64$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…3570backed Yes | 61c | 107.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd481…b2dabacked No | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…77d8backed No | 23c | 87.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5f…c23ebacked No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…9187backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…82afbacked Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Yes | 71c | 56.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…5602backed Yes | 62c | 49.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…31dbbacked Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…2cf2backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c8…03a3backed Yes | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.