Champions League · resolved market
Will Liverpool beat Bologna?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ea96a0b14ca3596e1bc272ed6e2da74839ebe879c7df4f4412e8976a79f8cc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 15c | 19,506$2,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,925.9 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 16c | 5,555$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.79 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 16c | 5,455$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.75 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 17c | 4,465$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.84 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 13c | 3,494$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6443backed No | 15c | 2,077$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef0…595cbacked No | 17c | 1,928$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 15c | 1,899$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.85 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 15c | 1,516$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.79 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…c167backed No | 16c | 1,490$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 16c | 1,320$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.27 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed No | 17c | 642$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…b0fdbacked No | 15c | 620$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c56…fe4abacked No | 16c | 541.14$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc0…8443backed No | 16c | 420.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked No | 14c | 399.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3343…b0a4backed No | 15c | 367.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 332.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce3…8fc2backed No | 16c | 216$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…522fbacked No | 17c | 173.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…19e0backed No | 16c | 133.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x434c…80a3backed No | 16c | 108.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3362…8cb4backed No | 19c | 106.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0889…d579backed No | 17c | 106.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4150…db54backed No | 17c | 91.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 18c | 60.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Liverpool beat Bologna?this page
- Will Bologna beat Liverpool?No won
- Will the match between Liverpool and Bologna end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.