Fifa International · resolved market
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ec6da0b5c831d77a79becaa261a43e24555cc2f7d3883fe553dbca5d41f286d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 20c | 977.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 894 | 43.4%388 W · 506 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 10c | 913.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 13c | 758.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 12c | 679.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 7c | 590.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 20c | 501.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 80c | 463.5$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.57 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Over | 8c | 389.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…4c5cbacked Over | 22c | 363.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 80c | 312$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 80c | 311.6$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 20c | 222$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 7c | 194$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 18c | 154.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 22c | 139.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 19c | 134.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 115 | 20%23 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 79c | 104$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bd…12ccbacked Over | 20c | 96.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 20c | 57.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 19c | 53.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Under | 80c | 14.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 4.5this page
- Georgia vs. Bahrain: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 0.5Over won
- Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 1.5Over won
- Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 2.5Under won
- Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 3.5Under won
- Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Bahrain (-1.5)Georgia won
- Spread: Georgia (-1.5)Georgia won
- Spread: Georgia (-2.5)Bahrain won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.