Spread: Georgia (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x587f675037fdf65db35e355850574c34d01cd651851cbfa0fbbb95088b3a15b2

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bahrainof Georgia, Bahrain
Resolved: Jun 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $22,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,593 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x198f…c419backed Bahrain	74c	5,378$4,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,378.37	177	48%85 W · 92 L	+7.8wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Bahrain	77c	3,233$2,477 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$756.17	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Georgia	24c	2,539$611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$611.23	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Georgia	25c	1,328$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.59	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Georgia	18c	1,126$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.19	115	20%23 W · 92 L	-8.8wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b0c…a1aabacked Georgia	37c	1,068$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	115	44.3%51 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Georgia	23c	1,057$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.23	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Georgia	35c	573.61$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	894	43.4%388 W · 506 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Bahrain	62c	487.39$302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.21	232	55.2%128 W · 104 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Bahrain	66c	458.18$305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.64	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Georgia	18c	351.21$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.83	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Georgia	26c	312.77$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.67	481	52.4%252 W · 229 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe462…e436backed Georgia	33c	303.03$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	229	19.2%44 W · 185 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Georgia	15c	257$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	876	51.1%448 W · 428 L	+25.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Georgia	21c	253.76$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.29	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Georgia	16c	210.82$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.41	855	50.6%433 W · 422 L	+54.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Georgia	26c	208.51$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.78	847	51%432 W · 415 L	+10.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Georgia	36c	175$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.25	418	57.9%242 W · 176 L	+14.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Bahrain	64c	159$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.03	1,688	54.4%918 W · 770 L	+31.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Bahrain	71c	147.7$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.6	631	51.5%325 W · 306 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Bahrain	73c	130$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.1	224	49.6%111 W · 113 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Georgia	33c	127$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.37	1,204	48.9%589 W · 615 L	+18.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Georgia	26c	121$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.46	334	43.4%145 W · 189 L	-10.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Georgia	24c	120.06$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	155	43.9%68 W · 87 L	+9.0wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Bahrain	66c	100$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	141	46.1%65 W · 76 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Georgia	26c	87.19$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.26	2,231	49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xede5…5300backed Georgia	24c	73.25$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.58	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-3.6wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Georgia	36c	72.45$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.32	261	46%120 W · 141 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Bahrain	68c	70$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	935	42.2%395 W · 540 L	-27.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Georgia	28c	61.35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.46	73	50.7%37 W · 36 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Bahrain	74c	53.13$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.66	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x747f…ad68backed Bahrain	77c	41.04$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.44	171	54.4%93 W · 78 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Bahrain	68c	40$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.8	166	59.6%99 W · 67 L	-9.8wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d44…9f3bbacked Bahrain	66c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	77	64.9%50 W · 27 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Georgia (-2.5)this page
Georgia vs. Bahrain: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 0.5Over won
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 1.5Over won
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 2.5Under won
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 3.5Under won
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 4.5Under won
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Bahrain (-1.5)Georgia won
Spread: Georgia (-1.5)Georgia won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Georgia (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event