Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ef15475a756603e6ee4b6fbfc48b692229edd8ac85de8490a3ba27ea78a8e64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 55c | 3,691$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042.8 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 29c | 3,422$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.83 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 72c | 1,941$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.16 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 70c | 1,354$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.65 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 44c | 1,153$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.76 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 65c | 969$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.15 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 523.37$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.11 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 33c | 275.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 56c | 268$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03fd…2cd4backed Over | 29c | 162.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 67c | 154$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 34c | 147$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 66c | 138.91$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 27c | 128$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 34c | 98.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 30c | 81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 23c | 79.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…601abacked Over | 31c | 77.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 80c | 75.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 57c | 59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 68c | 49.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0b…5efdbacked Over | 33c | 32.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 64c | 23.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)New England Revolution won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-2.5)New England Revolution won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: New England Revolution O/U 1.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: New England Revolution O/U 2.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: Toronto FC O/U 0.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.