Mls · resolved market
Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedaaec8ce4108a3cfcdf62d4cd7c895a2085dcf87926b7c1a8e445f23d40c513
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New England Revolutionof Toronto FC, New England Revolution
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa797…dedebacked New England Revolution | 74c | 6,549$4,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,675.13 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto FC | 18c | 3,781$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.34 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New England Revolution | 72c | 2,962$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.7 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed New England Revolution | 75c | 2,113$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.3 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Toronto FC | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked New England Revolution | 76c | 1,432$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.68 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked New England Revolution | 42c | 1,389$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.63 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toronto FC | 24c | 1,272$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.44 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Toronto FC | 55c | 966.92$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.31 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New England Revolution | 75c | 910.22$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.55 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed New England Revolution | 45c | 828.94$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.88 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Toronto FC | 24c | 779$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.96 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Toronto FC | 24c | 779$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.96 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto FC | 37c | 607.38$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.83 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed New England Revolution | 76c | 573.27$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Toronto FC | 23c | 572.61$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Toronto FC | 24c | 485.25$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Toronto FC | 24c | 462.05$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.89 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Toronto FC | 12c | 379.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed New England Revolution | 73c | 344.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.67 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 73cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Toronto FC | 23c | 333$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Toronto FC | 12c | 316.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…cce5backed New England Revolution | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Toronto FC | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed New England Revolution | 76c | 148$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed New England Revolution | 76c | 147.41$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed New England Revolution | 76c | 134.72$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Toronto FC | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Toronto FC | 22c | 116.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed New England Revolution | 40c | 101.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Toronto FC | 23c | 83.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03fd…2cd4backed New England Revolution | 75c | 77.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Toronto FC | 57c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked New England Revolution | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc6…d5e0backed Toronto FC | 23c | 65.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed New England Revolution | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked New England Revolution | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked New England Revolution | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Toronto FC | 23c | 59.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto FC | 36c | 50.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked New England Revolution | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked New England Revolution | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf39…7032backed New England Revolution | 43c | 40.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New England Revolution | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed New England Revolution | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1082…48d3backed New England Revolution | 72c | 34.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…ce8bbacked New England Revolution | 75c | 32.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +169%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed New England Revolution | 77c | 31.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New England Revolution | 42c | 26.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Toronto FC | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked New England Revolution | 72c | 24.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed New England Revolution | 76c | 23.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed New England Revolution | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-2.5)New England Revolution won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: New England Revolution O/U 1.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: New England Revolution O/U 2.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution: Toronto FC O/U 0.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.