Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f06cc02a34313e0cb39df3ab70dbdff29f799d0cb56a3d18aaff743f9f21323
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 24c | 321.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 71c | 281$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 67c | 266.67$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 250.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed Yes | 32c | 242.35$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 233.69$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 11c | 198$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed Yes | 28c | 155.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 38c | 148.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 127.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 121.29$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 29c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 92.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 86.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…9ee4backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 77.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 55.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…d2b1backed Yes | 29c | 54.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 35c | 43.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 40.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 73c | 37.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 54c | 37.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 59c | 30.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 56c | 29.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 27.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 27.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 23.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 74c | 23.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…adf9backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed No | 77c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.