Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1274ff2380e5528d5d9c8e0571cfc4725e080cdae809e015ece47ede9862efdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 393.96$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 42c | 340.6$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.56 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 71c | 280.97$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.49 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 24c | 226$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.37 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 210.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked No | 77c | 207.53$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.15 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 20c | 200.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 18c | 196.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.67 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 6c | 192.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 182.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 26c | 182.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 28c | 155.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.45 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 23c | 145.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.05 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 142$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 76c | 135.35$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 36c | 134.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e07…13b0backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 59c | 95.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 90.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 14c | 83.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 70c | 79.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 18c | 72.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 26c | 59.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 74c | 46.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9011…8330backed Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 29c | 36.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 62c | 32.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 27.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 27.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked No | 74c | 27.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 74c | 26.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed No | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 80c | 21.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…17dfbacked No | 75c | 13.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.