TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Sacramento State Hornets vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Northern Arizona Lumberjacksof Sacramento State Hornets, Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,207
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,623

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,207 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea22…747abacked Sacramento State Hornets0c6,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524121.2%51 W · 190 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+299%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Sacramento State Hornets15c2,686$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.235,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks54c1,161$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.0437947.8%181 W · 198 L-26.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks53c837.13$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.0581453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Sacramento State Hornets44c687$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.2837142.6%158 W · 213 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Sacramento State Hornets46c634.45$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.3512,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks52c627.05$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.9874649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc5…7708backed Sacramento State Hornets5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011028.2%31 W · 79 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Sacramento State Hornets14c387.61$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4868254.3%370 W · 312 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Sacramento State Hornets7c382.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.224,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Sacramento State Hornets41c333.8$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.255127.5%14 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-52.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Sacramento State Hornets23c322.68$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.312,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Sacramento State Hornets7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2125325.3%64 W · 189 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Sacramento State Hornets29c217$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.42,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Sacramento State Hornets24c209$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.161,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Sacramento State Hornets47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9425049.2%123 W · 127 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44b6…98b4backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks76c191.09$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5813845.7%63 W · 75 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks54c184.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8439050.5%197 W · 193 L-34.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Sacramento State Hornets10c169.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.078234.1%28 W · 54 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-41.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c6a…c76abacked Sacramento State Hornets49c163.27$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.36per pick51cpaid-74%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3212…9541backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks54c148.15$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.15785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick49cpaid+72.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Sacramento State Hornets10c144.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8571655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Sacramento State Hornets49c140.1$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.751,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Sacramento State Hornets47c134$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.241,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2608…34c1backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks57c131.58$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.58887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.34per pick53cpaid+62.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Sacramento State Hornets47c130$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.541,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sacramento State Hornets50c127.17$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.045,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4211…3f27backed Sacramento State Hornets17c110.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc8c…d58cbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks56c103.89$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.798353%44 W · 39 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd286…4c1bbacked Sacramento State Hornets46c100.13$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0613561.5%83 W · 52 L+13.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Sacramento State Hornets49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492540%10 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468460.7%51 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Sacramento State Hornets49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks51c98.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.034,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks52c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.419950.3%100 W · 99 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks51c76.9$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6824340.7%99 W · 144 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Sacramento State Hornets23c63.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.651,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks76c53$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.473,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2df…82a8backed Sacramento State Hornets49c51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.99955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+41.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.564658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed Sacramento State Hornets30c49.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9952353.5%280 W · 243 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Sacramento State Hornets48c47.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7899045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b29…dc3abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks55c45.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc070…b6a5backed Sacramento State Hornets33c44.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Sacramento State Hornets46c42.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6216140.4%65 W · 96 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Sacramento State Hornets49c39.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.581,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Sacramento State Hornets34c39.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2420248%97 W · 105 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks70c35.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.728347%39 W · 44 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks54c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.123948.1%115 W · 124 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeac2…fd78backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks68c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.645453.7%29 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aee…7ed5backed Sacramento State Hornets47c25.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x526a…8996backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks57c24.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Sacramento State Hornets50c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1216551.5%85 W · 80 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5931…b2cebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks55c21.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.93933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.