Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Sacramento State Hornets vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f37e21200360d7ec67c59f4db41f4ba5dd2a1fce8dcb8d7cec372572865feb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacksof Sacramento State Hornets, Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea22…747abacked Sacramento State Hornets | 0c | 6,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 241 | 21.2%51 W · 190 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +299%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 15c | 2,686$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.23 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 54c | 1,161$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.04 | 379 | 47.8%181 W · 198 L | -26.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 53c | 837.13$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.05 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 44c | 687$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.28 | 371 | 42.6%158 W · 213 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 46c | 634.45$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.35 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 52c | 627.05$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.98 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…7708backed Sacramento State Hornets | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 28.2%31 W · 79 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Sacramento State Hornets | 14c | 387.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sacramento State Hornets | 7c | 382.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 41c | 333.8$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.25 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sacramento State Hornets | 23c | 322.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed Sacramento State Hornets | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 253 | 25.3%64 W · 189 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Sacramento State Hornets | 29c | 217$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 24c | 209$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sacramento State Hornets | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 76c | 191.09$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 54c | 184.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 390 | 50.5%197 W · 193 L | -34.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed Sacramento State Hornets | 10c | 169.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6a…c76abacked Sacramento State Hornets | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.36per pick | 51cpaid | -74%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…9541backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 49cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 10c | 144.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Sacramento State Hornets | 49c | 140.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sacramento State Hornets | 47c | 134$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…34c1backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Sacramento State Hornets | 47c | 130$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sacramento State Hornets | 50c | 127.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…3f27backed Sacramento State Hornets | 17c | 110.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…d58cbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 56c | 103.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 46c | 100.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Sacramento State Hornets | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 199 | 50.3%100 W · 99 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 51c | 76.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Sacramento State Hornets | 23c | 63.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 76c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…82a8backed Sacramento State Hornets | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…7a77backed Sacramento State Hornets | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 523 | 53.5%280 W · 243 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Sacramento State Hornets | 48c | 47.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b29…dc3abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 55c | 45.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc070…b6a5backed Sacramento State Hornets | 33c | 44.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Sacramento State Hornets | 46c | 42.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Sacramento State Hornets | 49c | 39.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Sacramento State Hornets | 34c | 39.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 70c | 35.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 239 | 48.1%115 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…fd78backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aee…7ed5backed Sacramento State Hornets | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x526a…8996backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 57c | 24.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Sacramento State Hornets | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…b2cebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 55c | 21.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sacramento State Hornets vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacksthis page
- Sacramento State Hornets vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: O/U 154.5Under won
- Sacramento State Hornets vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: O/U 155.5Under won
- Spread: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (-1.5)Northern Arizona Lumberjacks won
- Spread: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (-2.5)Northern Arizona Lumberjacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.