Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f3e1ba7ea11e405b11bc0123ac0fae6d1d139dc6307dd9865bfbfe1b486b8bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof Spirit Academy, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked VP.Prodigy | 47c | 7,000$3,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,717.48 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Spirit Academy | 52c | 3,935$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.29 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Spirit Academy | 53c | 2,232$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.12 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Spirit Academy | 15c | 1,351$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.93 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed VP.Prodigy | 48c | 1,060$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.2 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Spirit Academy | 53c | 837.74$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Spirit Academy | 5c | 642.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…5e99backed Spirit Academy | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Spirit Academy | 53c | 532.53$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.24 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Spirit Academy | 58c | 410.26$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.03 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Spirit Academy | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.86 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Spirit Academy | 31c | 244.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Spirit Academy | 53c | 198.58$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…03bbbacked Spirit Academy | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Spirit Academy | 31c | 178.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Spirit Academy | 48c | 169.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Spirit Academy | 44c | 152$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Spirit Academy | 34c | 148.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed VP.Prodigy | 78c | 118$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Spirit Academy | 64c | 96.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked VP.Prodigy | 78c | 85.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Spirit Academy | 32c | 80.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Spirit Academy | 53c | 73.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed VP.Prodigy | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…66bdbacked VP.Prodigy | 62c | 48.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Spirit Academy | 34c | 44.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…a75bbacked VP.Prodigy | 47c | 37.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Spirit Academy | 53c | 33.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed VP.Prodigy | 66c | 27.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed VP.Prodigy | 69c | 27.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf60c…f540backed VP.Prodigy | 56c | 19.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group AVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.