Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef556438b6ba50bc2886d151f41bfb2bdace3c8d41c2e4d58b20fbe4b5dbbe57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof Spirit Academy, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked VP.Prodigy | 52c | 7,777$4,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,740.95 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Spirit Academy | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Spirit Academy | 45c | 5,450$2,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,426.84 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…7132backed Spirit Academy | 2c | 2,400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 12cpaid | +206.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Spirit Academy | 47c | 2,295$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.02 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 2,214$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.48 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 2,004$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed VP.Prodigy | 54c | 1,000$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.47 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Spirit Academy | 52c | 966.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Spirit Academy | 49c | 646.44$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.39 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed VP.Prodigy | 51c | 573.99$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.26 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 546.6$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.64 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…594fbacked Spirit Academy | 45c | 493.33$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed VP.Prodigy | 55c | 439.67$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.85 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked VP.Prodigy | 57c | 438$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.34 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Spirit Academy | 11c | 350.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 224.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed VP.Prodigy | 51c | 210$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Spirit Academy | 52c | 197.74$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…03bbbacked VP.Prodigy | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed VP.Prodigy | 46c | 155$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed VP.Prodigy | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Spirit Academy | 47c | 145.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed VP.Prodigy | 58c | 112.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Spirit Academy | 49c | 102.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 76.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Spirit Academy | 37c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Spirit Academy | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed VP.Prodigy | 35c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 61.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…ac80backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed VP.Prodigy | 47c | 44.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed VP.Prodigy | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…9c6ebacked VP.Prodigy | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group AVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.