Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bc75f35f55a8bff8f8e9518d7fd7b4d978eee6a948de3365b1b14e018c74ee6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof Spirit Academy, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Spirit Academy | 1c | 3,786$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked VP.Prodigy | 49c | 1,524$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.08 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Spirit Academy | 51c | 1,491$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.98 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed VP.Prodigy | 61c | 668.11$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.8 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Spirit Academy | 51c | 667.54$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.79 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed Spirit Academy | 39c | 640$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.4 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy | 40c | 627.63$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.07 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Spirit Academy | 54c | 599.96$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.7 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed VP.Prodigy | 62c | 511.19$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.77 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked VP.Prodigy | 48c | 480$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.6 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Spirit Academy | 32c | 467.49$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.89 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…c7aebacked VP.Prodigy | 80c | 272.21$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Spirit Academy | 51c | 230$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed VP.Prodigy | 46c | 214.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked VP.Prodigy | 49c | 203.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed VP.Prodigy | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fca…bdf1backed Spirit Academy | 35c | 163.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f31…4574backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 145.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked VP.Prodigy | 66c | 124.45$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed VP.Prodigy | 47c | 116.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Spirit Academy | 51c | 109$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Spirit Academy | 53c | 103.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed VP.Prodigy | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed VP.Prodigy | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Spirit Academy | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Spirit Academy | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed VP.Prodigy | 58c | 92.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…c14dbacked VP.Prodigy | 61c | 67.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked VP.Prodigy | 48c | 64.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…9cf6backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed VP.Prodigy | 66c | 51.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Spirit Academy | 24c | 48.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Spirit Academy | 51c | 47.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed VP.Prodigy | 63c | 45.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed VP.Prodigy | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…0a9bbacked Spirit Academy | 54c | 39.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x512a…0b6ebacked VP.Prodigy | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked VP.Prodigy | 48c | 32.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Spirit Academy | 52c | 30.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked VP.Prodigy | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…e1abbacked VP.Prodigy | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d1…4e28backed VP.Prodigy | 56c | 24.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc461…ce65backed VP.Prodigy | 76c | 23.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec48…d04cbacked Spirit Academy | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…1b6bbacked VP.Prodigy | 79c | 17.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.