Tennis · resolved market
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Marton Fucsovics vs Frances Tiafoe
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f60b079b74bb6f6000e93329a13d1be9e495e821e2a1c45f01c326b1bce1c0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fucsovicsof Fucsovics, Tiafoe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Fucsovics | 58c | 5,570$3,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,359.75 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Tiafoe | 49c | 4,209$2,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,061.93 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fucsovics | 53c | 3,682$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.29 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tiafoe | 44c | 2,992$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.4 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Tiafoe | 47c | 2,804$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.21 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Fucsovics | 69c | 1,235$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.83 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Fucsovics | 53c | 1,215$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.93 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Fucsovics | 52c | 947.61$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.03 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Tiafoe | 49c | 808.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Tiafoe | 47c | 599.98$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.99 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fucsovics | 58c | 497.64$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.68 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed Fucsovics | 56c | 400$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…e407backed Fucsovics | 52c | 340.97$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Fucsovics | 65c | 321.6$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Fucsovics | 53c | 307.7$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.7 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Tiafoe | 17c | 258.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Fucsovics | 53c | 248.4$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.75 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tiafoe | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8456…b31dbacked Fucsovics | 53c | 213.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Tiafoe | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…82f1backed Fucsovics | 68c | 198.53$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a3…ae13backed Tiafoe | 65c | 185.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Tiafoe | 49c | 169.94$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Tiafoe | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Tiafoe | 57c | 123.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Fucsovics | 68c | 110.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Tiafoe | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Tiafoe | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Fucsovics | 63c | 79.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…335abacked Fucsovics | 55c | 76.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…21ffbacked Tiafoe | 49c | 57.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Fucsovics | 66c | 51.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Tiafoe | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…126ebacked Fucsovics | 53c | 37.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Tiafoe | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Fucsovics | 31c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Fucsovics | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Tiafoe | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.