Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f63bb28fef16cbce42d017be1a230c56eaf45ea3cbb3d6a67b19f35ca2d9383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 64c | 789.88$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.75 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 29c | 510.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 7c | 382.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…de75backed Yes | 32c | 344.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 275.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 263.75$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 31c | 249.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.79 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 240$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 17c | 238$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 66c | 227.52$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 210.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 45c | 208.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 202.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 74c | 184.42$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 170.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 168.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 76c | 131.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 129.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 28c | 129.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 111.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 44c | 103.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa943…f7d2backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 77c | 98.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 11c | 96.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 25c | 89.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 24c | 88.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 24c | 83.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 63c | 79.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 73.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 18c | 72.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 21c | 72.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 71.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 67c | 70.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 61.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 61.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked Yes | 75c | 59.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 52c | 57.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 55.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 20c | 53.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 26c | 50.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 58c | 42.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 27c | 41.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 44c | 37.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 48c | 34.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 65c | 33.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 35c | 29.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…8819backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 23.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb5…0f28backed Yes | 67c | 22.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed Yes | 75c | 22.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 54c | 19.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 73c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 71c | 15.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.