Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea357b5f5c4672956a29dfbe145e9e1b41ff0084e73004453b45a82dcabd58c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 39c | 762.05$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 60c | 412.18$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.14 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 61c | 367.57$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.9 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 62c | 350.45$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 60c | 322.56$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.02 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 320.83$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 55c | 260.84$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.82 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 251.51$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 235.08$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 227.86$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 225.33$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.46 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 200$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 65c | 147.41$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 143.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 140.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 134.22$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 71c | 130.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.83 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…1d2fbacked No | 79c | 126.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 120.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 117.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 49c | 108.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked Yes | 29c | 104.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 79c | 103.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 46c | 103.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 101.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 101.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 36c | 96.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 60c | 86.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 71c | 79.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 51c | 78.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 19c | 77.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 74.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…5f62backed No | 48c | 73.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 34c | 73.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 64.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 47c | 63.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 53c | 56.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 51c | 55.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 47c | 52.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 52.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 50c | 52.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 53c | 51.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 29c | 50.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 49.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 48.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 29c | 47.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 55c | 45.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 68c | 44.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 52c | 43.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 25c | 43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 40.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 76c | 39.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 51c | 38.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 49c | 38.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 47c | 36.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 61c | 36.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 35.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 62c | 32.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 31.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 55c | 30.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 47c | 28.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 45c | 28.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…0a90backed Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 26.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 53c | 25.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 70c | 24.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 24.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 73c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked No | 68c | 20.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 70c | 14.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.