TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,163
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,163 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa09d…af80backed Yes39c762.05$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021150.7%107 W · 104 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes60c412.18$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.144746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No61c367.57$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.961760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x182a…f847backed No62c350.45$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.618762.6%117 W · 70 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No60c322.56$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.0258152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No50c320.83$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.644,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No55c260.84$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8267158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No59c251.51$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.152,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No61c235.08$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.32,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No54c227.86$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No49c225.33$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.462,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No39c200$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.66,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e0b…0020backed Yes65c147.41$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2238930.3%118 W · 271 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes30c143.76$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1387629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c140.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.899,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No50c134.22$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.587,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes71c130.38$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8338655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94bf…1d2fbacked No79c126.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.11947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No18c120.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.784,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes29c117.55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.824,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes49c108.2$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2464460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xf7b8…d8cebacked Yes29c104.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305455.6%30 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes79c103.78$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed No46c103.08$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.668458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes37c101.51$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes60c101.4$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.336,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.881,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked No53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.515868.4%108 W · 50 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2719022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9141033.7%138 W · 272 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c96.42$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.939,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes36c96.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6622550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No62c87$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes60c86.15$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.752,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked No71c79.59$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0830665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes51c78.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4025058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d1f…e428backed Yes19c77.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.069931.3%31 W · 68 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No71c74.84$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.441,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f25…5f62backed No48c73.78$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.222572%18 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes34c73.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.921,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes30c64.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.951,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes47c63.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.75,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No53c56.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.621,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No72c55.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5645675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No51c55.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.052,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes47c52.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7135137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes48c52.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes50c52.19$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.122,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa967…79a5backed Yes53c51.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.148050%40 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes29c50.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.530849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2416946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe412…4356backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.56931.9%22 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes51c49.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.133,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No71c48.19$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.982,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes29c47.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.811,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes55c45.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.042,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed No68c44.86$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2858922.8%134 W · 455 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes52c43.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.832,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No25c43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.255,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes45c43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.412,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes29c40.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7987437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.253353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked No76c39.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3942061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f77…4b79backed Yes51c38.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes49c38.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6334853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No47c36.47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3318046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No61c36.24$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3121451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes29c35.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.35,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes62c32.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208667.4%58 W · 28 L+10.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c31.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No55c30.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.464859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.147866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes70c29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.349750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed No47c28.52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1153258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes45c28.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6323463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86cb…0a90backed Yes49c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.722347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes52c26.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.625,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd31d…f8bfbacked No51c26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.88450%42 W · 42 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes53c25.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3430332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.252,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked No70c24.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2346549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No69c24.09$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.421,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89f1…52e4backed No73c20.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.615271.2%37 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked No68c20.32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.534935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.386952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1094066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1043663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No70c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.458358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8162…afc3backed No80c16.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.253971.8%28 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked No70c14.46$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.349053.3%48 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.