World Politics · resolved market
Will Brazil beat Venezuela?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f64670520a01551de8119d9ac6eafa8ba64e4704a03ae03d18e04f405a73dbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 38c | 2,527$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +533%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 73c | 1,810$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Yes | 69c | 1,666$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 37c | 1,044$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.5 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed No | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 31c | 978.6$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +217.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 35c | 927.54$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.9 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed No | 38c | 775.34$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 49c | 629.39$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 62c | 480.61$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd7…547dbacked Yes | 65c | 461.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…411bbacked Yes | 55c | 460.64$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 38c | 414$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 68c | 283.11$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 48c | 227.41$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 57c | 157.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…9bacbacked Yes | 66c | 145.38$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Yes | 63c | 79.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brazil beat Venezuela?this page
- Will Venezuela beat Brazil?No won
- Will the match between Venezuela and Brazil end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.