World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f7758598e34c68e02103decf9c61f270ac4c1b101a955df73a4f89055f9fd65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 37c | 1,300$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 481.78$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.89 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 452.19$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.81 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 281.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 43c | 166.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 60c | 163.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 147.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 130.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 55c | 122$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 48c | 110.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 104$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 59c | 101.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 101.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 84.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 47c | 63.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 57.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 61c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 56.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 52c | 54.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 63c | 47.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 40.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked Yes | 78c | 38.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 36.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…8662backed Yes | 42c | 35.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 34.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 70c | 34.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 33.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 60c | 33.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 55c | 31.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 48c | 28.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 27.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 51c | 24.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 21.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 54c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 58c | 18.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.