Tennis · resolved market
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Marie Villet
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f8dbe1462986f850482ed55b1d6c5d56eb6540aae515bc1220aaf03d7e8264b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alana Subasicof Alana Subasic, Marie Villet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Marie Villet | 36c | 2,002$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.66 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alana Subasic | 64c | 1,016$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.8 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…9158backed Marie Villet | 39c | 905.74$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.16 | 788 | 40.6%320 W · 468 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Marie Villet | 19c | 682.57$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Alana Subasic | 61c | 665.21$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.05 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Marie Villet | 16c | 534.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Marie Villet | 25c | 532$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Alana Subasic | 65c | 360.09$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.39 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Alana Subasic | 77c | 359$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Alana Subasic | 64c | 342.13$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.77 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Alana Subasic | 62c | 290$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.54 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Alana Subasic | 75c | 266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Marie Villet | 41c | 224.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed Alana Subasic | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ac…7deebacked Marie Villet | 23c | 160.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 332 | 53.6%178 W · 154 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Marie Villet | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…bea7backed Alana Subasic | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 664 | 52.3%347 W · 317 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…23bdbacked Marie Villet | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 167 | 69.5%116 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Alana Subasic | 59c | 98.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Marie Villet | 20c | 92.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Alana Subasic | 59c | 92.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 232 | 47%109 W · 123 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Alana Subasic | 65c | 66.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Alana Subasic | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7454…57f2backed Marie Villet | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Marie Villet | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 423 | 50.8%215 W · 208 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Alana Subasic | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Marie Villet | 38c | 27.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…88abbacked Marie Villet | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…2044backed Alana Subasic | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Alana Subasic | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…d0dfbacked Alana Subasic | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 172 | 69.2%119 W · 53 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.