Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fa492e9957865b9482bd7159da06adf01d71c1a041ba7bb3e0facb42efd286e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 20c | 1,084$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.85 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 718$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.09 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 18c | 649.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 80c | 592$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 3c | 349.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed Over | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 11c | 159.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 18c | 155.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…de52backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 18c | 99.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…83d3backed Over | 20c | 63.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.