Mls · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4866daa5828d00b31a813215d9e9bd6a104968051336db42e70effdffd9f84c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Sounders FCof Los Angeles FC, Seattle Sounders FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Sounders FC | 79c | 1,913$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.27 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked Los Angeles FC | 19c | 1,005$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Los Angeles FC | 18c | 999.96$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…68e5backed Los Angeles FC | 29c | 759.5$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Seattle Sounders FC | 74c | 540.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Los Angeles FC | 5c | 493.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Los Angeles FC | 16c | 367.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Los Angeles FC | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6b…ca1bbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 77c | 242.86$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…5e62backed Los Angeles FC | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Los Angeles FC | 19c | 88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b4…87bfbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 74c | 50.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd875…19cfbacked Los Angeles FC | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Seattle Sounders FC | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…9ecdbacked Los Angeles FC | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 77c | 31.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Seattle Sounders FC | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.