Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd907fa063bbad2b89932fbe29dacaa9f41b112cbb15d41d7b9813d7b6e969e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 40c | 6,245$2,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 71c | 3,106$2,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.7 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 38c | 2,521$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.9 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 23c | 2,268$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.79 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 64c | 2,066$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.55 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 60c | 1,600$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 25c | 1,500$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 33c | 1,499$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.83 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 60c | 1,200$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 67c | 1,085$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.37 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 21c | 856.87$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.43 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x214d…e552backed Under | 61c | 654.95$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 63c | 591.98$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.03 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Under | 61c | 472.18$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 21c | 435.37$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.03 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 3c | 406.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 397.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.02 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 38c | 381.58$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 10c | 333.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked Over | 18c | 333.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 34c | 300$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.65 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Under | 61c | 292.36$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.02 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 60c | 260$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 60c | 260$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 67c | 205$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 65c | 199.5$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 62c | 162.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…10c0backed Under | 61c | 162.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 60c | 156$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 60c | 140$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 37c | 131.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 39c | 129$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 115.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 61c | 114.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 34c | 92.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 62c | 91.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Under | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 70.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 28c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 37c | 44.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…83d3backed Over | 37c | 42.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 40c | 41.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 40.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Under | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 61c | 32.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 37c | 28.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 63c | 26.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Under | 61c | 25.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x831d…3893backed Under | 61c | 24.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5b…acdcbacked Under | 64c | 23.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Under | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Under | 61c | 20.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 61c | 18.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.