Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will AZ vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fadc39677bda2909aa34fcce00cc145cbb8b45eeab1662a42d2ea0e2c597dae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 16c | 3,906$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.61 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 2,985$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.85 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 68c | 2,545$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738.7 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc16d…39a2backed Yes | 31c | 1,588$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 4c | 1,450$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 1,139$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.17 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 5c | 935.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 134 | 26.1%35 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 27c | 600$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 27c | 473.78$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.86 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…32f7backed Yes | 27c | 411.11$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 73c | 382$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.86 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.25per pick | 36cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 368.52$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.02 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 27c | 229.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.82 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 68 | 22.1%15 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 22c | 135$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 122.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc2…711fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 19c | 85.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 16c | 67.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked No | 73c | 63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 22c | 59.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 27c | 37.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…05f2backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 65c | 26.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 62 | 82.3%51 W · 11 L | +11.4wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 72c | 19.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…5a08backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AZ vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-02-08?No won
- Will AZ win on 2026-02-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.