MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fae3bcc78097a6d593ce23f285b8b8d0ce37bc007a9ad2606dbb499f5548f58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 6,217$2,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,454.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 5,956$3,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350.1 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 5,486$2,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,853.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 59c | 2,861$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.52 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 2,847$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,824.6 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…0cadbacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 341.9$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.76 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 329.63$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 285$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 198.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 121.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 112$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Seattle Mariners | 23c | 100.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 77.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 76.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 71.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 44.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 41.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 40.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 27.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 23.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 17.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.