Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fb28312be101d0a5cc1b643b5afedae0bb091963cdf159e258e68f3cc3ce769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb2d…27e6backed Yes | 1c | 2,465$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…a550backed Yes | 57c | 1,682$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.71 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +1,025.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x401b…1e3bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,149$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…6e11backed Yes | 2c | 872.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…2decbacked No | 37c | 851$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 10c | 764.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 11c | 736.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb110…bdacbacked Yes | 5c | 606$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…ddd9backed Yes | 7c | 458$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9b…7ccbbacked Yes | 7c | 313$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…a726backed No | 37c | 310$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 41c | 271.75$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.33 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…cbc2backed Yes | 9c | 255$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…4fb6backed Yes | 5c | 211$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Yes | 13c | 199.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a60…2f78backed Yes | 10c | 189.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 11c | 182.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d0…d7dabacked No | 37c | 182$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fc…07cabacked Yes | 63c | 172$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 72c | 140.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…8ae2backed Yes | 12c | 135$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed Yes | 32c | 123.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…8957backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900d…5d1bbacked Yes | 63c | 95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86b…5970backed Yes | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…0668backed No | 71c | 83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…9b81backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4260…8d8abacked No | 71c | 73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…25bfbacked Yes | 29c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506e…877abacked Yes | 29c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca66…7548backed Yes | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…54f1backed Yes | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42b…37d2backed Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cd…2938backed Yes | 32c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…05d6backed No | 73c | 50.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d06…693bbacked Yes | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 50c | 44.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1b…ca2cbacked No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e3…e59abacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a25…0deebacked No | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x932a…8d36backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…506abacked No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…f321backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f5…c92abacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4c…0779backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…8e61backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x893b…7b90backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a0…327bbacked No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd1…8ab1backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe912…4533backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.