Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbb21f3716478f70c7d66870bc1b9d21fae9519143aa3a66bb5a4b4c9ec1e068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 33c | 1,100$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 2c | 1,059$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 15c | 785.53$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 14c | 625.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 33c | 487.36$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.74 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…58debacked Yes | 44c | 450.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 8c | 391.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…38a6backed Yes | 47c | 325$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…c368backed Yes | 52c | 319$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 307.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 25c | 290.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…67abbacked No | 48c | 279$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 33c | 274.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…5fa5backed Yes | 38c | 269$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 8c | 260$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 33c | 255.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd867…1256backed Yes | 18c | 253.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…cbc2backed No | 67c | 237.41$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.37 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…c531backed No | 62c | 211$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec1a…9f78backed No | 48c | 177$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 28c | 163$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd488…5c6cbacked Yes | 52c | 157$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 20c | 156.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…6e11backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ad…0aaebacked Yes | 14c | 148$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 65c | 140.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…488fbacked No | 53c | 135$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8d…c837backed No | 63c | 122$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8831…1c81backed No | 59c | 122$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9d55backed Yes | 21c | 121$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e0…a16cbacked Yes | 33c | 119$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 18c | 117.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c0…0131backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd4…17e0backed Yes | 35c | 104$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6357…9d92backed No | 79c | 102$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed7f…0f12backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1636…e45fbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe73d…4fdabacked No | 63c | 97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 54c | 95.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…0966backed No | 48c | 91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc644…48a6backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b8…4cdbbacked No | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…207abacked No | 65c | 87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…3722backed Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…8fc6backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…592abacked Yes | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c4…92a2backed Yes | 38c | 77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61f…6986backed Yes | 54c | 77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…18fbbacked No | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…2f69backed Yes | 21c | 76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…15b0backed Yes | 28c | 75.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +953.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36a4…21ddbacked Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…44edbacked Yes | 41c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b8…a523backed Yes | 41c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…2ca8backed Yes | 37c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b7…4820backed Yes | 52c | 71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5e…4aa0backed Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92ec…1613backed No | 64c | 66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda9…8d4ebacked Yes | 23c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb622…76e0backed Yes | 37c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd087…3c3ebacked No | 59c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…9705backed Yes | 37c | 62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f05…3d91backed Yes | 36c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdade…6436backed No | 46c | 61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486a…5af9backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…08cdbacked Yes | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83d…fc60backed Yes | 30c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef3…f83fbacked Yes | 30c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…c407backed Yes | 38c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2a…b942backed Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…27e6backed Yes | 48c | 52.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ca…15adbacked No | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4e…80c5backed No | 59c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…be19backed Yes | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71df…c916backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…125ebacked Yes | 36c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…1cdcbacked Yes | 39c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1f…f659backed Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc43c…b400backed No | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7b9abacked Yes | 39c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…7211backed Yes | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c26…f064backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…1e4bbacked No | 64c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29fe…19febacked Yes | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1300…11f0backed No | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…e289backed No | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6d…1df4backed No | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3976…c673backed Yes | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd63…152fbacked Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd838…67f9backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…63d1backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f45…aef6backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f60…63f1backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…4224backed Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9684…1bbabacked Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.