Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa28bf2f009b3b4d50a26175c6d6c284efc30ab9f940d35066e4f13118ff4b404
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 54c | 500$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 50c | 499.31$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.36 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…ebf2backed Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 27c | 199.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.29 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 47c | 176.01$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…6212backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 59c | 137.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 46c | 119.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…27e6backed Yes | 41c | 103.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc685…d042backed No | 52c | 101$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 32c | 100.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 33c | 96.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…3ff6backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…aa89backed Yes | 22c | 79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4268…198cbacked No | 58c | 72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba7…29e0backed No | 62c | 72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…6e11backed No | 64c | 70.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c37…9b21backed Yes | 22c | 66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 27c | 63.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b9…a681backed Yes | 42c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 34c | 62.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x36ca…f0adbacked Yes | 45c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860f…c9a5backed Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efe…dc3cbacked Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213d…e376backed Yes | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a4…9151backed No | 53c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…a550backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +1,025.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x68f7…1b8cbacked Yes | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…0b91backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9a…6800backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…cf65backed Yes | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…ad28backed Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764d…0150backed Yes | 37c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…cb34backed Yes | 48c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5458…43fcbacked No | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c9…a74abacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b2…27fbbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae6c…3fa5backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f44…772ebacked No | 58c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3300…ca98backed Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7bbbbacked Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526b…a224backed Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0567…9bfbbacked No | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4802…8c24backed No | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6357…9d92backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb96b…aeb1backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…15e1backed Yes | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 33c | 33.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15b5…8255backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10c…819fbacked No | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd375…63acbacked Yes | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20df…65ccbacked Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…1d98backed Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe708…487dbacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9c…2997backed No | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a12…a49fbacked No | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked No | 77c | 31.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…f53abacked No | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeef…cd5ebacked Yes | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b4…2f35backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f40…21b6backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…ea92backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…2f9dbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd1…829fbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf1…c6a3backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…178abacked Yes | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…959abacked No | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…ac7bbacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…ca6bbacked No | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 48c | 27.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…edf9backed No | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…e13cbacked No | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3f…3632backed No | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d08…4940backed No | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…5081backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ab…2429backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1882…4ce6backed No | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x959a…19f1backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f4…9365backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…b5a1backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933d…dd8ebacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51c2…cc3bbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…cb4bbacked Yes | 46c | 24.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe740…a1f0backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…c5dcbacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4284…3e10backed No | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9573…ad43backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3463…86cebacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cae…3238backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…0f8ebacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d3…ee41backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd5…b95ebacked No | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b7…2a78backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2883…830fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.