Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07824d1c5a86a1aca99f238b3deab46b58e4afe9606ab83bfa28ef4f96bdb1d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd867…1256backed Yes | 5c | 1,312$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 1c | 1,150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,008$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 704.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 3c | 499.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…58debacked Yes | 22c | 447.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 4c | 427.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 4c | 422.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 4c | 347.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 9c | 303.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 19c | 300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…6e11backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 282$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab0d…d8fabacked Yes | 9c | 207$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 14c | 159.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…56cabacked Yes | 8c | 156$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…27e6backed Yes | 11c | 146.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8410…2494backed Yes | 28c | 136$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…a7fcbacked Yes | 15c | 121$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…3301backed No | 72c | 117$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd1…88c0backed Yes | 25c | 89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4531…ef02backed Yes | 14c | 77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…d6b6backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cda…ccfbbacked Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…9732backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…75e6backed Yes | 28c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…b7adbacked Yes | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…bca6backed No | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f7…82e1backed Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04fc…6528backed Yes | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…3cdcbacked Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf518…fa45backed Yes | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…5b82backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf678…8b82backed Yes | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd486…09fbbacked Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7649…a735backed Yes | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3005…f6a7backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9649…64c0backed Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…a3d8backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…beccbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…e5c2backed No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa122…7647backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…18a7backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb44…ad9dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62f…4bc4backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…91b6backed No | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…7032backed No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f3…91bcbacked No | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…02a3backed No | 60c | 28.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f8…231fbacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…a2b4backed No | 64c | 27.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabc…d0efbacked No | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d66…3c93backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…dc7bbacked No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a0…7f15backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a58…e9c2backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…70bcbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…a604backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…5d9abacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x753c…8c1abacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…14e4backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb7…faafbacked No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…f51fbacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…158abacked No | 75c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.