Dota2 · resolved market
MOUZ to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fc3776ec89da1113b179a1afa3fbbd595455a0bc65f378bb99b08559ed33f3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 32c | 978.99$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.59 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed No | 68c | 938.88$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.44 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed No | 70c | 857.14$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 68c | 504.01$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.28 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed No | 69c | 405.8$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef6…01a9backed Yes | 31c | 405.8$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 15c | 272$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed No | 69c | 239.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Yes | 32c | 224.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…82b5backed Yes | 52c | 193.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Yes | 31c | 163.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked No | 69c | 109.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 107.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…1347backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -7.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 62.8%54 W · 32 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 78c | 74.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…04eebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 75c | 62.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 70c | 60.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Yes | 37c | 52.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 24c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 70c | 32.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4381…2588backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…3332backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed No | 70c | 28.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3da6…9ac4backed No | 72c | 22.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed No | 69c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MOUZ to win 2-0?this page
- MOUZ vs Vici Gaming: Draw (1-1)?No won
- Vici Gaming to win 2-0?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.