MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fcd5dfb5abf94df7d1c081495fa9af4bf8922ead4e950eca80639acf850d4d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 9,073$3,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,737.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 7,629$4,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,127.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers | 67c | 1,654$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.61 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 487.5$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed Tampa Bay Rays | 3c | 350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 321.88$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.75 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 216.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 152.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 119.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 61.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 51.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Texas Rangers | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 29.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Texas Rangers | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.