MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa09f4f10f2a3df89f747e09a37cb0bdd79d9201d15c619760e3c1b0d21d84c56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 3,281$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.68 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 3,043$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.57 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 2,855$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.55 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Texas Rangers | 61c | 2,050$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.49 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 1,408$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.31 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers | 24c | 1,003$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 820.5$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.51 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 808.26$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.12 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 727.83$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.25 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 540$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Texas Rangers | 61c | 522.24$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.57 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Texas Rangers | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 387.13$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.15 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 46c | 370$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 247.51$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 77c | 240.83$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 184.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 20c | 137.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 80c | 137.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers | 13c | 131.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 101.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 47.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 33.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Texas Rangers | 47c | 32.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Texas Rangers | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 27.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44be…76b1backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.