MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd61e0a54334a76075ab3539e9d9c0b2ec8b1c5e386788fdd0a0b97f1462d1b9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 50c | 13,901$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,901.27 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 10,769$5,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,331.44 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 8,309$4,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,262.43 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 5,993$3,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,360.38 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 40c | 3,574$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160.51 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 3,143$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 52c | 2,273$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.8 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 51c | 1,534$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.4 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 51c | 946.29$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.61 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 830.5$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.51 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 710.57$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.42 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Over | 51c | 571.73$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.58 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 52c | 560.73$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.58 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 40c | 531.52$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.2 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Over | 48c | 437.9$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.19 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 52c | 386.98$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.84 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 55c | 363.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.7 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 295.51$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.85 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 43c | 185.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Over | 45c | 132.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 42c | 126.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 42c | 121.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 52c | 111.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 47c | 107.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 50c | 106.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 45c | 105.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 105$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 48c | 101$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 91.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 49c | 79.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 43c | 79.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Under | 44c | 67.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 37c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 57c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Over | 48c | 53.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 58c | 44.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 318 | 49.7%158 W · 160 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 60c | 44.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 44.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 44c | 43.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 43c | 34.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…1ea7backed Under | 58c | 28.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6c…1a3cbacked Over | 57c | 23.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 58c | 20.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 55c | 18.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df1…da8cbacked Over | 67c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.