La Liga · resolved market
Will CD Leganés vs. AD Ceuta FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ffd83b292112d276d291fbe521fb1ac7795fc3511006387515b533a55e89bed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,589 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 30c | 6,500$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.15 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 2,161$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.1 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 73c | 1,431$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.65 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed No | 70c | 865.34$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 669.32$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.1 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 73c | 576.68$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.42 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 71c | 375$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.75 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Yes | 28c | 314.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…33d8backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 26c | 295.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 71c | 258.9$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 39c | 203.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 70c | 180$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…ca10backed No | 72c | 175$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 71c | 161.08$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 319 | 52.4%167 W · 152 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 27c | 147.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…172bbacked Yes | 29c | 136$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e7…6037backed Yes | 29c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed No | 74c | 123.57$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4086backed Yes | 29c | 118$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed No | 70c | 114.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…3108backed Yes | 29c | 114$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 70c | 94.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 80c | 90.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked No | 73c | 87.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 72c | 82.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed No | 70c | 82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…ab3dbacked No | 72c | 71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 69c | 62.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 635 | 53.1%337 W · 298 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 70c | 62.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 307 | 49.2%151 W · 156 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9036…4774backed No | 71c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…700bbacked No | 72c | 57.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…5e77backed No | 72c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…9ec5backed No | 74c | 54.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91f…d5eebacked No | 72c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 70c | 53.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…3db6backed No | 72c | 52.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 46.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 64c | 44.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 585 | 48%281 W · 304 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 266 | 41.4%110 W · 156 L | +15.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 35.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…8929backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 188 | 42%79 W · 109 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f0…23dcbacked No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff4…4ccfbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…c04fbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6259…ebf4backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d2…67f0backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e8…d1abbacked No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe177…c731backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 62c | 21.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56ce…ea8dbacked No | 73c | 16.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 74c | 15.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db7…0a30backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…2ffebacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 73c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Leganés vs. AD Ceuta FC end in a draw?this page
- Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-03-21?No won
- Will CD Leganés win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.