La Liga · resolved market
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac281bf5aad24438609ecde52a05c8693fbce1dcd0577c0b198dc3ec71014ae2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,237 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 2,358$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.09 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 52c | 1,410$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.22 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 49c | 1,400$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.83 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…3453backed Yes | 24c | 1,029$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ae…58cebacked No | 76c | 1,029$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 20c | 973$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.6 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 48c | 859.52$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.31 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x763d…68dcbacked No | 77c | 760.55$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630f…34cebacked Yes | 23c | 760.55$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 61c | 670.73$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.42 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…47d0backed Yes | 47c | 216$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Yes | 46c | 212.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 21c | 198.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 351 | 45.6%160 W · 191 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…ca10backed Yes | 49c | 175$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 21c | 145.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 133.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Yes | 49c | 123.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 66c | 112.52$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 585 | 48%281 W · 304 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 61c | 109.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 635 | 53.1%337 W · 298 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 45c | 102.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 283 | 42.8%121 W · 162 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 19c | 91.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked Yes | 49c | 84.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 66.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 444 | 24.1%107 W · 337 L | -50.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 54c | 52.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 413 | 48.7%201 W · 212 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 42%79 W · 109 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 79c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 80c | 37.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…9ec5backed No | 79c | 24.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ce…ea8dbacked Yes | 48c | 24.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 608 | 32.4%197 W · 411 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed No | 58c | 18.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 78c | 18.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will CD Leganés vs. AD Ceuta FC end in a draw?No won
- Will CD Leganés win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.