Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40143820db3963f9228ef5a94522ed885e1daf8b47d7012fa8caa1a58db26e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 335.17$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 239.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 25c | 206.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 75c | 194.34$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 173.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 36c | 140.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.84 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 57c | 130.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 124.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 57c | 104$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 103.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 67c | 97.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 96.77$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 94.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 66c | 94.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 45c | 85.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 77.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 66c | 75.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 72c | 68.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 26c | 54.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 66c | 53.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 52.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 50.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 69c | 48.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 37c | 48.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 47.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 28c | 46.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 48c | 41.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 44c | 40.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 39.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 37.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 44c | 37.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 62c | 34.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 65c | 33.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 31.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 30.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 29.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 54c | 28.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 26.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 54c | 23.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 64c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 67c | 21.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 67c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…7c05backed No | 57c | 18.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…6e79backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.