Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4fec0cae3f84772f52dde7459d68fa90c2a7f1710d29394f84b17ad33cbf042
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 270.23$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 200.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 159.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 11c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 128.43$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 28c | 123.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 59c | 104.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 99.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 92.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 42c | 91.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 84.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 16c | 69.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 63.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 62.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 57.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 40c | 56.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 67c | 55.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 64c | 54.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed No | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 39c | 50.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 57c | 49.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 65c | 45.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 44c | 44.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 42.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 30.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 29.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked No | 64c | 29.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 29.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed No | 65c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 67c | 27.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 22.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 66c | 21.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 19.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 18.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.