MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40472b319614eeb86221eb7ba3417a2cddbd6302ccf530fcc42c39394757019c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 18c | 4,412$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,614.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Detroit Tigers | 79c | 1,205$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.38 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Los Angeles Angels | 23c | 845.87$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.07 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Los Angeles Angels | 21c | 466.19$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.29 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Los Angeles Angels | 28c | 349.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.74 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Los Angeles Angels | 18c | 308$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.56 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 77c | 256.14$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Los Angeles Angels | 18c | 169$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Detroit Tigers | 29c | 155.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Angels | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Los Angeles Angels | 25c | 119.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Detroit Tigers | 72c | 102.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 18c | 96.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 76c | 70.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Los Angeles Angels | 21c | 67.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Los Angeles Angels | 21c | 55.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Detroit Tigers | 50c | 54.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Los Angeles Angels | 21c | 53.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd91…b49abacked Los Angeles Angels | 28c | 50.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Detroit Tigers | 72c | 47.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Los Angeles Angels | 70c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Detroit Tigers | 80c | 42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Los Angeles Angels | 43c | 26.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Detroit Tigers | 57c | 26.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Detroit Tigers | 72c | 22.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Detroit Tigers | 54c | 19.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 16.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit TigersLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 13.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 15.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.