Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x405e17e229c8ad58b25f464f13f345a8d71f29ded8b24f1bce3a192fd9b5b01d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 4c | 7,275$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No | 4c | 1,063$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…9ebbbacked No | 5c | 929.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 60c | 749.14$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.17 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 69c | 540$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.4 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 44c | 538.64$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.43 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 43c | 433.2$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.67 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 34c | 356.25$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.45 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 58c | 308.92$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.59 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 23c | 294.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked No | 60c | 278.27$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.79 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 218.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 203.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 40c | 198.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.2 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 53c | 189.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.18 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 37c | 176.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.56 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked Yes | 80c | 175.39$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 52c | 153.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 80c | 149.72$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 53c | 146.27$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 12c | 145.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 35c | 144.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 40c | 141.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 53c | 136.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 39c | 134.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…8208backed No | 31c | 129.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 59c | 128.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 55c | 125.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 120.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 47c | 119.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 77c | 118.28$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 57c | 112.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 60c | 107.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 105.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…cb41backed Yes | 43c | 77.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 65c | 72.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 32c | 70.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 59c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 64c | 64.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 41c | 58.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 42c | 57.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 42c | 54.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 53.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 29c | 52.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 51.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 38c | 50.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked Yes | 61c | 47.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6c…b8e9backed Yes | 41c | 47.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…1fb3backed Yes | 37c | 45.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 58c | 43.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…ad6bbacked Yes | 37c | 43.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 40c | 43.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 78c | 41.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked No | 61c | 40.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 43c | 39.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 59c | 36.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 35c | 36.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 61c | 35.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 58c | 34.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…9811backed Yes | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 61c | 32.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked No | 58c | 32.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 38c | 31.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 42c | 31.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed8…42a4backed Yes | 40c | 30.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 59c | 30.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…4a60backed No | 66c | 27.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 57c | 27.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 74c | 26.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a61…35e3backed Yes | 77c | 26.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 25.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee5…4b64backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…1432backed Yes | 48c | 20.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 78c | 18.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.