Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c7d192da61e3f46fc1be7ef9af8037c63ea773f0ac07114317094fa42124fb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 2,949$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.97 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 35c | 421.19$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.41 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 53c | 373.3$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.24 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 62c | 351.82$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 59c | 348.91$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.44 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 47c | 340.57$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.15 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 20c | 272.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 262.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 33c | 250.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 207.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…8208backed Yes | 35c | 205.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 12c | 200.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 71c | 188.89$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 63c | 176.18$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 31c | 169.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 31c | 169.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 33c | 147.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 76c | 142.86$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 74c | 131.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 52c | 130$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 128.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 34c | 119.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 18c | 109.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 26c | 105.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 49c | 101.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 52c | 95.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…ad6bbacked Yes | 31c | 91.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 40c | 87.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 46c | 85.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 67c | 77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ee84backed No | 54c | 75.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 66c | 75.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 72.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 28c | 68.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 74c | 68.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 54c | 59.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked Yes | 28c | 55.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 36c | 51.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6c…b8e9backed Yes | 38c | 51.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 39c | 47.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 43c | 44.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 35c | 43.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 29c | 40.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 55c | 40.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 33c | 39.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 46c | 39.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed No | 56c | 38.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed No | 64c | 36.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 47c | 33.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 66c | 33.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b1…6375backed No | 63c | 31.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 49c | 26.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 23.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 47c | 22.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 22.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 73c | 18.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…a16fbacked No | 71c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed No | 76c | 14.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.