Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40726250928e834e1fe9b108f487eaf58975a8e5d711846e2aa601747e67a6b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3240…f6ebbacked Yes | 51c | 961.15$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 463.27$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.82 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 43c | 305.57$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 172.26$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 157.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 51c | 130.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 128$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 126$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 126$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 52c | 124.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 122.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 49c | 122.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 113.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 46c | 112.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 37c | 108.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 108$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 52c | 107.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 51c | 104.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 73c | 99.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 48c | 87.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 87.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 78.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 36c | 69.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 56.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 52c | 49.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 48c | 43.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 44c | 41.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 56c | 39.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 48c | 30.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 27.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 51c | 27.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 51c | 25.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 25.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 52c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 80c | 17.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.