Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x407e9ac930eae0d1e2f55fff12e5ad7a895725dfd4728aa3f3828163f5451a86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tulsa Golden Hurricaneof New Mexico Lobos, Tulsa Golden Hurricane
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 57c | 4,041$2,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.67 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked New Mexico Lobos | 44c | 1,943$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.54 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New Mexico Lobos | 42c | 1,542$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.68 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed New Mexico Lobos | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked New Mexico Lobos | 43c | 804.06$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.74 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 53c | 736.22$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.02 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 53c | 435$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.45 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 54c | 277$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.42 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New Mexico Lobos | 45c | 245.45$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.12 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New Mexico Lobos | 34c | 90.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 52c | 85.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed New Mexico Lobos | 48c | 68.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked New Mexico Lobos | 47c | 65.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed New Mexico Lobos | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed New Mexico Lobos | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb510…762bbacked Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 52c | 38.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked New Mexico Lobos | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 46c | 23.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked New Mexico Lobos | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed New Mexico Lobos | 51c | 21.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-3.5)this page
- New Mexico Lobos vs. Tulsa Golden HurricaneTulsa Golden Hurricane won
- New Mexico Lobos vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane: O/U 151.5Under won
- New Mexico Lobos vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane: O/U 160.5Under won
- Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-1.5)Tulsa Golden Hurricane won
- Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-2.5)Tulsa Golden Hurricane won
- Spread: Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-2.5)Tulsa Golden Hurricane won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.