MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40a2de10f081320da05cffb6890e39fcb9c9edae4b2f27d964659bf88e02bae1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 55c | 9,047$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 7,147$3,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,963.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 48c | 6,082$2,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,163.06 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Over | 55c | 5,473$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 44c | 1,563$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.75 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 1,083$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 46c | 944$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.76 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 46c | 800$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 56c | 800$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 49c | 742.75$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.53 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 499.72$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.85 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 45c | 460$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 45c | 202.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 56c | 149.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 149$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 130.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 47c | 91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…1803backed Over | 55c | 89.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 17c | 79.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 50c | 74.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 55c | 63.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 46c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 45c | 40.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Over | 55c | 38.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 57c | 37.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 29.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 22.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 79c | 21.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 51c | 20.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.